Oil conflict with Russia, Belarus turned to budget losses. As stated by Finance Minister Andrej Kharkovets Feb. 4 at the board meeting of the Finance Ministry, on the results of January Treasury sustained a loss of 200 billion rubles (about $ 70 million). Despite this, the authorities do not intend to abandon its plans to increase salaries to state employees. Truncate planned expenditures. 

"Failures income from VAT, excise taxes, tax revenues from foreign economic activity", - said Minister of Finance. According to him, if the tax on foreign economic activity is still possible to find an explanation, the results of the VAT and excise duties - a consequence of insufficient growth in the economy. And this, according to the minister, is a "wake-up call" for all levels of budget system. 

Economist Sergei Chaly linked reduction of income problems of oil refineries because oil supplies: "In January, they worked on 40% of full load. The budget of approximately 30% is made up of revenues from VAT. It sits at about 70% of export duties, of whom about half - from the sale of petroleum products. That is a total of not less than 10% of total revenues is "oil industry". 

However, even last year, economists pointed out that the budget for 2010 was laid out at the rate too high plans for income from exports. Given that the Government plans to zero export duty on petroleum products, of this article proceeds have altogether forgotten. 

Despite the losses, the Ministry of Finance and is optimistic to fulfill their commitments. "In 2010 we will maintain stability, stability and balanced budgets at all levels, to ensure unconditional fulfillment of social obligations of the state to society. And all these problems must be solved in the regime of austerity", - emphasized Kharkovets. 

The ministry also expects to collect in the current year revenue budget than planned. According to the Head Office, excess budget revenues should be accumulated in the presidential reserve fund and reserve funds of local executive and administrative bodies. 

Amount of projected revenue to the reserve fund president in 2010 increased in 8,5 times. If last year was scheduled to collect from small-business and other sources of 324 billion rubles, in 2010 - 2.76 trillion rubles. 

However, according to Sergei Chaly, sources to replenish the reserve funds is also a little bit.Thus the temptation to go on a populist wage growth have great authority. "If you need money in an election year the Belarusian authorities to try to find" - he believes. 

"The financiers - to limit the budgetary costs of population density in order to provide funds for the decision the head of state for higher wages in the budgetary sector", - said the Minister. 

It should be noted that the Belarusian authorities have committed themselves to the main creditor of Belarus, IMF limit in 2010, wages in the budgetary sector 11-S per cent. In the first quarter to raise the salary will be no more than 5%. Further increase (within the total budgetary resources) can be considered only if it will allow the macroeconomic conditions. The same situation with the salary will be on state enterprises enjoying government support. 

Experts say the IMF, a policy based on overly optimistic assumptions, the largest increase in wages, increased investment and credit expansion, can lead to faster economic growth in the short term. But it is much worsen the state of balance of payments, and the achievements in terms of reduced external vulnerability will be lost. 

Sergei Chaly predicts that the adjustment of the budget the government will have to go already in the first quarter: "This situation was the case last year when we were also overly optimistic plans, but have been abandoned since the first months of 2009, it was clear that do not get them. " 

According to the economist, the current budget is actually calculated from the economic growth than 11-13%, but only 7-8%. Other revenues in the budget, he said, is not taken into account in the cost of not participating, and hide under reserve income. "And the National Bank and the Ministry of Finance, responsible for monetary and monetary policies, are well aware that the planned economic growth, most likely, will fail. Therefore, it is disastrous for the economy to calculate your spending and lending capacity of the economy, based on unrealistic growth" - noted economist.